A Study in Infra-Red part 14 Red Pill or the Blue Pill?

I ought to know by this time that when a fact appears to be opposed to a long train of deductions it invariably proves to be capable of bearing some other interpretation.”

Sherlock Holmes – A Study in Scarlet

In part 13 we were presented with a conundrum. While we discovered that cirrus clouds had increased in the 22 years from 1979 to 2001; in alignment with our hypothesis that this artificial cover had been intentionally induced by means of aircraft, we were perturbed to find that in the 13 years from 2001 to 2015 there there must have been an equal decrease in cirrus cover so that no overall trend was revealed.

In Arthur Conan Doyle’s first great work, A Study in Scarlet, Holmes is also perturbed to find that the first of two pills that he tries on a dog, turns out be harmless. Why is he so disheartened that he has failed to put down this poor creature? The reader need not be dismayed, as this dog was already terminally ill and Holmes, in his fashion, saw this as a humane way of both putting the animal out of its misery and testing his hypothesis. The two pills had been recovered from two crime scenes in which, Holmes deduced, they had been forcibly administered to the victims of the vengeful murderer, Jefferson Hope. He had assumed that they had both contained the same deadly poison.

Holmes then tries the other pill, which works swiftly. I ought to have more faith! he exclaims jubilantly and then his famous quote above.

It turns out that the two pills; one harmless, one deadly, revealed the square-dealing nature of the murderer. He had offered each of his victims a 50-50 chance and taken the risk himself.

Thus Holmes; through this at first, apparently discordant fact, was afforded greater insight into the case.

Likewise; having made a long train of deductions leading us to the thesis:

  • The trails have increased the frequency of artificial cirrus formations and had a net-warming effect from 1979 to 2001.

We are faced with a fact that seems to oppose them, the anti-thesis

  • Whilst the trails themselves continued to grow in frequency from 2001 to 2015, cirrus cover, in contrast to the period before, decreased.

This leads one to the assumption that the geoengineering trails have led to this reduction and its net-cooling effect. This would seem to be borne out from the observations made by NASA over the same period:

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

We can see that the average rate of global warming, although still on the increase, has halved during this time. Note the anomalously cool areas over the eastern US, southern Greenland and the northern Atlantic.

Aircraft density has certainly not decreased nor even slowed its ascent. Neither have the trails themselves in any way abated, rather the opposite, occurring in ever-growing profusion. So how can cirrus cover have been reduced?

It is noteworthy that it was around 1998 that people began to notice the “chemtrail” phenomenon in the skies. It came to journalistic prominence through the work of William Thomas in 1999. He reported on the activities of an ex-Raytheon engineer, Tommy Farmer, who was documenting patterns of “condensation trails and chemicals” spread by U.S. Air Force aerial tankers across America

“After repeatedly observing aircraft spraying particulates “in front of and into cloud systems,” Farmer is “fairly certain the contrail phenomena is one part of a military weather modification weapons system.”

It was established at this stage that these operations were concerned with mitigating global warming.

“Farmer guesses that besides its obvious tactical military applications, aerial-seeding of contrail-clouds aligned in HAARP’s characteristic grid-patterns could be part of a secret U.S. government initiative to address the global weather crisis brought about by atmospheric warming.”

Many reported that these “contrail-clouds” often seemed to be occurring at altitudes much lower than normal cirrus clouds, at the level of the lower clouds and made the assumption that the planes themselves must have been operating at these lower altitudes.

We have established earlier in this study that the phenomenon of a sky cross-hatched with “contrail-clouds” had in fact been observed as early as the 1950’s. It can be speculated that these operations were much intensified by 1998 for people to notice them so readily but I also posit that, in the anomalously cool regions identified above, including the eastern US, an opposing form of geoengineering had begun to take place. This form entailed reducing high-cloud cover and enhancing low-cloud cover, resulting in an overall cooling effect. Indeed, the fact that lower clouds were enhanced likely contributed to the number of people noticing.

A Study in Blue

Recall part 8 where we looked at modern proposals for cirrus cloud geoengineering to reduce cirrus cloud cover at mid to high latitudes and cool the planet.

Cirrus cloud seeding: a climate engineering mechanism with reduced side effects?

The idea is to convert cirrus clouds from those that consist of many, smaller ice crystals that last longer to those that consist of fewer, larger ice crystals that precipitate out at a faster rate, reducing lifetime and coverage. The objective is not to seed specific cloud systems but rather to build up a background concentration of aerosol seeding material so that the air masses that cirrus will form in will contain the appropriate amount of seeding material to produce larger ice crystals.

There is a goldilocks phenomenon where just the right amount of ice nuclei (IN) are required to induce precipitation, an optimum seeding regime:

IN concentrations of up to around 10 IN per litre had no effect on cirrus clouds.

10 – 15 IN per litre were found to be “just right” producing cirrus clouds of few but large ice crystals leading to a reduction in cirrus coverage and a resulting cooling effect.

More than this optimum number would result in too many ice nuclei entraining atmospheric water but not reaching precipitation size for a considerable length of time.

Concentrations of 16 IN and higher were found to lead to an “over-seeding regime”, resulting in cirrus clouds of many but smaller IN and a consequent warming effect. These persistent cirrus formations on such a scale would add significantly to global temperatures.

In part 8, I postulated that this global project has actually been underway since around 1970, with the difference being that instead of building up an optimum seeding regime, an over-seeding regime has been established.

Geoengineering on its head, the basic premise of this book.

Now, if an over-seeding regime has been set up then it follows that to introduce an optimum-seeding regime of just the right number of ice nuclei in certain regions poses a problem. Although, as the cirrus formations migrate they gradually gather enough water for the crystals to reach precipitation size, this process is uncontrolled and can be hindered by the introduction of yet more ice nuclei.

One way to ensure that enough ice entrains onto the numerous ice nuclei is to drastically reduce the ambient temperatures at the levels and regions they are dispersed into.

Recall that when cloud seeding was initially developed in 1946, in addition to Vonnegut’s method entailing dispersal of ice nuclei such as lead and silver iodide, Schaefer’s method reduced the cloud’s heat budget by means of dry ice. This forces more atmospheric water onto the nuclei. A more developed method using this approach was patented in 1971 by Robert Knollenberg:

Weather modification method

Instead of dry ice, Knollenberg advocated the use of seeding agents such as milled urea, bacteria, potassium nitrate and ammonium nitrate. These have a large endothermic heat of solution which means that in addition to their role of nucleating ice and water, they also drastically reduce the temperature of the regions they are deployed in.

Precipitation in the higher latitudes normally begins as snow and melts to form rain as it falls and passes through warmer air closer to the surface, provided the temperatures are above freezing – 0°C (32 °F). Below those temperatures, precipitation reaches the ground as snow.

The use of the above ice-nucleating agents at the level of cirrus clouds will force the ice crystals to precipitate down to the levels of the lower clouds. As the crystals descend, what happens next depends upon the temperatures closer to the surface.

If they are warmer, the ice will convert to water droplets and the lower clouds will be invigorated by the introduction of both more ice nuclei and more water. Classic cloud seeding. Thus, in this case, high cloud cover will decrease and lower cloud cover will be enhanced, leading to an overall shift towards net-cooling. Precipitation is enhanced in these regions.

If the temperatures towards the surface are already close to freezing, this can drive temperatures to below 0°C, bringing about snow events that would not otherwise occur. In already freezing conditions, it can drive the temperatures dangerously low.

Further support for this hypothesis can be found in the record of Atmospheric or Precipitable Water Vapour, a measure of the total amount of water vapour in the air, from 1988 to 2001.

As covered previously, this revealed a decline in upper layer (around 18,000 to 30,000 feet) and middle layer (around 10,000 to 18,000 feet) water vapour from 1995 to 2001. The near-surface layer (surface to around 10,000 feet) shows an increase in water vapour from 1995 to 2001.

This chart, being a reflection of global atmospheric water vapour levels, reveals that levels in the middle and upper troposphere have decreased since 1995. However, in the lower troposphere (blue line) they have increased. This is in line with the reduction in high-cloud cover and enhancement of lower-cloud cover resulting from cooling-climate modification.

It will perturb the coincidence theorists beyond endurance to learn that Robert Knollenberg, the inventor of the weather modification method using milled urea described above was also an acknowledged expert on contrail formation and published in 1971 (the same year) the seminal paper:

Measurements of the Growth of the Ice Budget in a Persisting Contrail

NASA refer to this paper today to confirm that the water from the jet engine as compared to atmospheric water in a contrail is relatively insignificant (conservatively estimated as being around 24,000 times less):


 “Nearly all of the contrail is created from the moisture in the atmosphere.”


“The measured water mass within the contrail was found to be four orders of magnitude greater than that computed as a combustion product.”

Extremely curious however, are Knollenberg’s predictions in the paper on the likely effect of contrails on the amount of water in the upper atmosphere:

 “Average crystal sizes of nearly 0.5 mm allow for a transfer of moisture at generation level to much lower levels before re-evaporation. Because of the magnitude of the measured effect and its believed frequent occurrence, the overall effect of sub-tropopause jet traffic is likely to lower the water abundance at the most travelled levels.” Emphasis mine

“Given sufficient probability for conditions of such growth, the overall effect of sub-tropopause jet traffic may in fact be to lower the water abundance of this region of the atmosphere through the precipitation of existing moisture to much lower levels.” Emphasis mine

Knollenberg states in 1971 that contrails will shift water to lower levels in the atmosphere in the same year he patents a method for forcing water onto ice nuclei to perform the same function.

Then, starting in 1995 water levels in the atmosphere do just that, around the same time that people begin noticing military jets leaving behind “contrail-clouds” that occur at lower levels in the atmosphere where they have no business occurring. Note the jets don’t need to be operating at lower levels because the trails and contrail-clouds themselves descend to the lower levels where observers may misconstrue this as being due to lower jet flight paths.

This is followed by a simultaneous reduction in global cirrus cloud cover and a notable slowdown in the ascent of global surface temperatures often referred to by skeptics as the notorious “global warming pause.”

Inference and Plausible Speculation

While we have ascribed the role of warming the globe primarily to climate modification by means of an artificial cirrus cloud over-seeding regime, we also have observed anomalously cold regions that are also subject to climate modification. Activists today usually associate atmospheric geoengineering with covert attempts to mitigate global warming and/or to poison the population.

There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.”

Sherlock Holmes

If it were only for cooling then why would it succeed in only a few isolated regions but catastrophically fail everywhere else?

So, we have the thesis of this book, the notion that clandestine geoengineering has a warming effect – let’s call it the red pill.

We also have an apparently discordant notion, the anti-thesis that it has a cooling effect – let’s call it the blue pill.

Which is it to be red or blue?

I ought to know by this time that when a fact appears to be opposed to a long train of deductions it invariably proves to be capable of bearing some other interpretation.”

Sherlock Holmes

The “other interpretation”, the synthesis, is that both pills are in play.

We have the red pill – warming climate modification. This is the predominant form and has been around since at least 1970.

It involves (but is not limited to):

  • The laying down of particulate trails in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with an over-seeding regime of ice nuclei giving rise to gigantic, persisting, artificial cirrus (upper) cloud formations.  Cirrus clouds have a net-warming effect. Increasing their frequency and duration in a given region will contribute towards warming.
  • The dispersal of black carbon particles from below, trapping solar radiation to generate heat, discouraging the formation of lower clouds and in turn causing air and moisture to rise by means of convection. As it rises to colder layers above, the moisture condenses to form cloud in conjunction with the ice nuclei already seeded to encourage the formation of higher clouds.

However, we also have the blue pill – cooling climate modification. This form occurs less frequently, but over heavily populated regions. It is familiar to many as the opaque “white-outs” that blot the skies. When coupled with intense and selective media activity, this leads people to believe that the planet is cooling or to succumb to the false notion that cold weather should not exist in a globally warming word. This method is employed primarily for psychological deception and fuels one side of the perpetual, polarized debate that distracts people from the truth. It has been deployed since around 1995 when the general public really began noticing the phenomena.

It entails (but is not limited to):

  • The introduction of seeding agents such as urea and bacteria with a large endothermic heat of solution into the previously established cirrus cloud formations. This forces more ice onto the crystals, accelerating precipitation, reducing cirrus cloud coverage and invigorating cumulus cloud formation lower down as the particulates and associated ice descends and melts. Lower clouds have a net-cooling effect. Decreasing the frequency and duration of cirrus clouds, and increasing that of cumulus clouds in a given region will contribute towards cooling.
  • The dispersal of black carbon particles at the surface level, generating convection and encouraging the formation of lower clouds as the moisture rises to meet the nuclei that have been forced down to the lower levels.

“One pill makes you larger

And one pill makes you small

And the ones that mother gives you

Don’t do anything at all”

Go Ask Alice-White Rabbit – Jefferson Airplane

Having identified these two opposing forms of geoengineering, the reader could now be forgiven for assuming that the geoengineers have not been able to make up their minds as to which direction they should drive the climate. This would be an incorrect assumption, as we shall see in part 15 how they have managed to hoodwink a sizeable portion of the world’s population into believing that global warming has slowed down or even stopped when that is certainly not the case.

2 thoughts on “A Study in Infra-Red part 14 Red Pill or the Blue Pill?

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